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Mortgage rates seem to be one of the more consistent and stable economic factors that we’re following these days. According to the latest issue of HSH’s Market Trends Newsletter, “Rates Still ‘Exceptionally Low‘,” the conforming 30-year fixed rate closed our survey week at 5.13% at a quarter-point fee level.

“The Federal Reserve re-committed to keeping the short-term interest rates it controls at ‘exceptionally low’ levels for an undefined ‘extended period of time.’ Along with the extension and expansion of the homebuyer tax credit, these important supports should help the housing market to continue to stabilize, and may even serve to promote some refinancing activity, too.”

In our post this morning on the October job numbers, we wrote that the third quarter’s increased productivity was a sign that employers have been successful in meeting their demand with fewer employees. Doing more (or about the same) with less is just one factor that’s holding back job growth.

Another factor holding back job growth is uncertainty. With the latest version of the health care bill circulating through Washington, small business owners are beginning to get a taste of what their future costs may include if the legislation is passed. Until employers get a concrete sense of what their wallets are up against,  hiring is likely to remain languid to say the least:

These days a good job is worth its weight in gold. So much of the insecurity that’s driving down consumer spending is based off of the uncertainty of the job market.

Last week we reported that the lack of employment opportunities are forcing more Americans than usual to apply for Social Security benefits before age 65. But there’s a flip side of that scenario.

A new poll from Princeton Survey Research Associates International suggests that some Americans are holding onto their jobs as long as they can — even if that means working past the typical retirement age.

Anyone who’s been looking for work can attest that it’s been a tough year to get a job. The unemployment rate rose above 9% as the recession saw a lot of small businesses close their doors, but the group having the most difficulties is the younger crowd:

The proportion of people ages 16 to 24 who were employed in July was 51.4 percent, the lowest July rate since records began in 1948 and 4.6 percentage points lower than in July 2008. …

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We seem to have entered a stage of the recession which HSH VP Keith Gumbinger has referred to as the “garden variety” recession. Despite still being trapped amongst inconsistent economic reports, many key indicators, in this case the employment situation, seems to be trending in the right direction.

The number of jobs lost in July has been the lowest since last August. Surprisingly, despite another 247,000 Americans losing their jobs last month, the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.1%. While the falling unemployment rate certainly has many of us encouraged, the job market is still clawing its way out of a very deep hole.

Last week CNBC’s Jerry Bowyer asked “why isn’t America hiring?”

…given the political mood in Washington during the past two years which has been far more focused on job creation (or savings) than on general economic growth. The stimuli plans were supposed to be job plans. The auto/bank bailouts cum nationalizations were supposed to be about saving jobs, not ‘Wall Street’. So given two record breaking stimuli within two years, why isn’t America hiring?

Bowyer answers his own question by speculating that “America isn’t hiring precisely because of government policy.” He concludes by writing “Jobs aren’t languishing despite the government’s best efforts. They’re languishing because of them.”

Vice President Joe Biden, President Obama’s chief spokesman for the administration’s economic stimulus package, says the White House overestimated the impact the $787 billion bill would have on unemployment:

“At the time our forecast seemed reasonable. Now, looking back, it was clearly too optimistic,” [Biden's chief economist, Jared Bernstein] told reporters last Monday.

Here is a visually-striking presentation of the unemployment situation in the United States. The graph, provided by TIP Strategies, Inc. — an economic development consulting firm, showcases jobs gained and jobs lost across the U.S. from 2004-present:

GRAPH: “The Geography of Jobs.”

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Part of our business involves forecasting the future. After subprime and low-doc loans burst the housing bubble over a year ago, lenders, brokers, lawmakers, industry officials, and borrowers were determined not to make those same mistakes twice. Yet if you are familiar with the history of the mortgage industry than you know the same mistakes are bound to happen twice — they’re just disguised a little differently.

Despite being on the cusp of recovery, we are already witnessing a new wave of defaults that can stall our rebound. The cause behind at least a portion of today’s defaults is much different than a few years ago: the culprits are “good borrowers gone bad.” So called “prime” mortgage loans are turning sour at a devastating pace. The Federal Housing Finance Committee (FHFA) reported to Congress that “Two-thirds of the AAA-rated private-label [mortgage-backed securities] purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae have been downgraded to “junk”…and only a small portion is still rated AAA.”

New York Governor David Paterson signed legislation yesterday that, effective immediately, extends the state’s unemployment benefits by 13 weeks. The over 500,000 New Yorkers on unemployment may now collect benefits for up to 18 months.

The $645 million extension, provided by the president’s stimulus package, aided 56,000 residents whose benefits would have ended this week: