June’s Job Report: Disappointing Yet Staying On Trackby Tim Manni
Unemployment picked up sharply in June from May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 467,000 nonfarm jobs were lost last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%.
The fact that layoffs increased by 145,000 from May to June, after falling by 197,000 from April to May, has many analysts disappointed with June’s report, urging that the numbers indicate our economic recovery, particularly pertaining to jobs, is far off.
However, when you look at the trend of not only layoffs but the unemployment rate as well, it suggests that May’s numbers may have been more of an anomaly than anything else. Taking May’s report out of the equation, June’s 467,000 still fits into the overall downward trend of unemployment. Furthermore, since January, the unemployment rate has increased an average of 0.45 percentage points each month, yet June’s rate only increased by 0.1.
Granted this isn’t cause for celebration of over-optimism, but it is an indication that the overall yearly trend of unemployment is moving downward.