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November 6th, 2009 (Modified on November 7th, 2009)

We’ve Surpassed 10% Before 2010

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The unemployment rate has surpassed the 10% mark for the first time since 1983, two months earlier than many had widely predicted. The jobless rate increased to 10.2% in October from 9.8% the month prior.

The Numbers Are Grim

October marked the 22nd straight month that the country has reported job losses — the longest continuing record in 70 years, according to MaketWatch.com. The number of jobs lost since the recession began has reached 7.3 million.

From MarketWatch.com:

Unemployment rose by 558,000 to 15.7 million, the government said. Of those, 5.6 million had been out of work longer than six months, representing a record 35.6% of the unemployed. Later Friday, President Barack Obama will sign a law extending unemployment benefits to as much as 99 weeks in hard-hit states.

The bill in which President Obama is scheduled to sign today will provide an extension of up to 20 additional weeks of unemployment benefits.

What Does This All Mean?

The “alarming” increase (as classified by Moodys.com) in the unemployment rate shows that while the economy is pulling itself out of the recession, the job market hasn’t improved, and is frankly getting worse. While production is growing in some sectors, employers have not been able, or have been unwilling, to add to their workforce. Productivity leaped up to 9.5% during the third quarter, meaning that more is being produced from fewer workers. For some, there’s no need for new hires as of yet.

Markets like real estate and retail will continue to remain in limbo until the job market picks up. Consumer confidence is wrapped so very tightly around the job market that both real estate and retail may not have a chance to recover (over a long period) until job losses at least stabilize.

Can anyone share any good news regarding jobs?

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4 Responses to “We’ve Surpassed 10% Before 2010”

  1. Lucia Says: November 6th, 2009 at 3:47 pm

    In my neighborhood this summer, 5 jobs were created or saved by stimulus money to pull logs out of a brook that were placed there by federally paid workers 10 years ago to enhance fish habitat. Reminds me of the joke, how many *** does it take to change a light bulb?

  2. Tim Manni Says: November 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

    Lucia,

    First off, it’s great to hear from you, we haven’t heard from you in a while — we’ve missed your commentary.

    Ha, it is a joke. I’m sure those five temporary jobs really must have pulled your town through.

    Hope to hear from you soon,
    Tim

  3. Tranen Capital Says: November 11th, 2009 at 5:53 pm

    Employment is a lagging indicator and should correct by second quarter next year, dont hold us to it. But cash always moves around the market on a technical basis. Tranen capital thinks that we are still in for higher unemployment in the near term but that should change around sometime next year.

  4. Tim Manni Says: November 12th, 2009 at 10:20 am

    TC,

    Let’s hope so. The only positive aspect I can take from us hitting 10% prior to 2010 — when most predicted it would — is that perhaps we’ll hit that unemployment bottom sooner than later.

    Thanks for the comment, please don’t hesitate to visit and comment again soon. Thanks,
    Tim

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Tim Manni is the Managing Editor of HSH.com and the author of their daily blog, which concentrates on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets.

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