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November 16th, 2012

Report shows an FHA in serious trouble

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Ticking money bombThe report is in. It’s not good.

The “Annual Report to Congress Regarding the Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Fiscal Year 2012” shows the FHA’s reserve fund has fallen to -1.44 percent—far below the 2 percent cushion mandated by Congress, and may open the door to the first infusion of government cash in the insurer’s 78-year history.

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan explained in the report’s forward that there are three main factors behind the decline in the reserve fund:

  1. Home price assumptions. You know what they say happens when you assume… Basically, the home price appreciation estimates used for this year’s study are far lower than what was used last year. According to HUD, this reduced their fund’s value by an estimated $10.5 billion. (Also, this report doesn’t take into account any home price appreciations since June of this year.)
  2. Low mortgage rates. This is a great example of how low interest rates work in a borrower’s favorite, they’ve ended up hurting the FHA. The FHA loses out when more borrowers pay off their loans or refinance to lower interest rates. Also, when borrowers with higher interest rates find themselves unable to refinance, the chances of defaults, strategic or not, increase. According to the report, “These effects of continued low interest rates result in a reduction of $8 billion in estimated economic value for the Fund, versus what was anticipated in last year’s report.”
  3. Reported losses. Lastly, an estimated $10 billion reduction in the fund’s value resulted from a change in the way losses from defaults are reflected.

It’s important to note that the decision to inject federal money won’t be made until February 2013 when the president releases his fiscal year budget for 2014.

Change is here, change is coming

In the meantime, the FHA has announced “a modest increase to FHA’s premiums.” The increase is two-fold: it will add revenue to the fund and serve to limit the FHA’s market share by increasing costs.

Also, the FHA has called upon Congress to approve several proposals the FHA says will “place FHA in a stronger fiscal position over the next twelve months and into the future.”

Here are the proposals (directly from the secretary’s forward):

  • Additional authority to ensure that FHA borrowers are receiving the level of delinquency assistance they deserve from their servicer,
  • Stronger and more flexible enforcement authorities so that FHA can identify noncompliance and poor performance and take action to avoid losses, and
  • Additional authority to manage the reverse mortgage (HECM) program so that consumers are better protected and able to retain their homes.

There are some bright spots, however, in this 2012 report: The loans which are putting the greatest financial stress on the FHA are from prior to 2010. According to the report, there are “$70 billion in future claim payments attributable to the 2007-2009 books of business alone.” A majority of the FHA’s more recent business is performing quite well.

HUD is remaining positive that a Treasury bailout won’t be necessary. “Coupled with the $11 billion in additional capital from expected new insurance guarantee volumes in FY 2013, we believe it is possible to return the MMI Fund capital ratio to a positive level within the year, and reduce the likelihood that FHA will need to call upon the Treasury for any special assistance this fiscal year.”

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3 Responses to “Report shows an FHA in serious trouble”

  1. Harry Obrian Says: November 17th, 2012 at 8:15 pm

    There is no such thing as a FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund or reserve fund. All monies sent to the FHA go directly into the government’s general fund. The only reserve there is is when the monies received by the FHA haven’t been deposited into the general fund yet.

  2. Ben Koshkin Says: November 18th, 2012 at 1:14 am

    Hi Tim, It is a very good post. It is a article of Financial status of FHA. I salute you and your post. Thanks.
    Ben Koshkin
    Director BD Texas Development

  3. Neil J. McGeehan Says: December 31st, 2012 at 11:27 am

    12/31/2012

    HSH has extremely useful & timely information about the Mortgage Industry, including FHA & Conventional mortgages.
    Also, your graphs & calculators are excellent.

    Thank you for all the useful information,

    Neil

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About the HSH Blog

HSH.com's daily blog focuses on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets. Our mission is to relate how changes in mortgage rates and housing policy, as well as the latest financial news, impacts consumers, homebuyers and industry insiders alike. Our 30-plus years of experience in the mortgage industry gives us an edge as we break down the latest changes in an ever-changing market.

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Tim Manni

Tim Manni is the Managing Editor of HSH.com and the author of their daily blog, which concentrates on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets.

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