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November 4th, 2013

Mortgage rates fall to summer lows once again

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3-Federal-ReserveWeak economic data last week continued to propel mortgage rates downward. Here’s how Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, described it in the latest edition of the Market Trends newsletter:

“The latest data indicates that we continue to trudge though lukewarm economic sludge with little indication of strong forward acceleration.”

Mortgage rates down again

Here are current mortgage rates, according to HSH.com’s weekly mortgage rates survey:

  • 30-year: The overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) eased by five basis points (0.05 percent) to 4.27 percent, remaining at its lowest value since the third week of June
  • 15-year: The overall average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) decreased by four basis points (0.04 percent) from the prior week’s value, slipping to 3.44 percent
  • FHA: The popular FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shed another two basis points to 3.91 percent
  • ARMs: The overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM responded to market conditions with a four hundredths of a percentage point (0.04 percent) decline, dropping to 3.02 percent for the week

What’s next from the Fed?

The Fed’s decision not to taper QE at the end of October wasn’t a big surprise to anyone. But as each meeting comes and goes and no tapering decision is made, the pressure and anticipation builds as the next meeting approaches. The Fed will meet again in December.

“The preponderance of evidence is that things remain largely weak, and that ongoing Fed support is welcomed and needed,” wrote Gumbinger. “That said, there are many weeks to go before December’s decision needs to be made, and warmer data makes it easier for the Fed to move with conviction.”

This week …

We’ll be following the economic data closely as the weeks go by, starting with this week which is chock full of important economic reports, including:

  • The ISM service index which will tell us what’s happening in the largest sector of the economy
  • We’ll get a look at mortgage market conditions though the eyes of senior loan officers
  • First look at third quarter GDP
  • An update on consumer borrowing patterns, personal income and spending
  • The October employment report

Is these data sets are positive, rates will rise; if they’re cooler, mortgage rates will fall. Gumbinger concluded, “We’ll opt for warmer, overall, and perhaps a slight firming in rates.”

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About the HSH Blog

HSH.com's daily blog focuses on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets. Our mission is to relate how changes in mortgage rates and housing policy, as well as the latest financial news, impacts consumers, homebuyers and industry insiders alike. Our 30-plus years of experience in the mortgage industry gives us an edge as we break down the latest changes in an ever-changing market.

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Tim Manni

Tim Manni is the Managing Editor of HSH.com and the author of their daily blog, which concentrates on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets.

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