November 11th, 2013

Positive data pushes mortgage rates higher



PercentNow more than ever, the direction of mortgage rates is largely dependent upon the direction of the economy.

“To some degree, markets are always dependent upon data to provide direction, with stronger or weaker reports adding volatility,” wrote Keith Gumbinger, vice president of, in the latest Market Trends newsletter. “In the current environment, this may be exacerbated, since both stock and bond markets are trying to figure out when the Fed may start to exit the arena and position themselves to gain advantage (or limit damage) when this occurs.”

And according to the economic reports out last week, things are looking brighter.

“At this moment, the data are flashing more green than not, so mortgage rates are moving more toward the red than not,” wrote Gumbinger.

Mortgage rates rising

According to the latest weekly mortgage rates survey from, mortgage rates of all stripes moved higher last week:

  • 30-year fixed: The overall average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) moved higher by seven basis points (0.07 percent) to 4.34 percent
  • 15-year fixed: The overall average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) increased by three basis points (0.03 percent) from the prior week’s value, rising to 3.47 percent
  • FHA: The FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by six basis points but remained under the 4 percent mark at 3.97 percent
  • 5/1 ARM: The overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM moved the least of the bunch, rising by two hundredths of a percentage point (0.02 percent), lifting to 3.04 percent for the week ending November 8

Mortgage rates were already on the rise by the time the October employment report was released on Friday. Both a report grading the health of the nation’s service sector—the ISM report– and the advanced estimate of the nation’s economic growth during the third quarter—the GDP report—indicated our economy is on more solid ground.

This week …

Since mortgage rates remain so data dependent, expect them to bounce around with “a bias to the upside.” As we always say, mortgage rates rise faster than they fall, so we’ll need a steady stream of weaker data to pressure mortgage rates down. According to Gumbinger, there isn’t an economic report out this week with “enough gravity” to do that.

“Amid warmer data, mortgage rates will be again rising as we move though [this] week,” wrote Gumbinger. “With the warmth spreading from [last] week bumping rates upward into [this] week, a good working number for [this] week would be an increase of around eight to 10 basis points.”

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One Response to “Positive data pushes mortgage rates higher”

  1. Document Time: the Qualified Mortgage in Los Angeles Real Estate | Red Blue Realty Real Estate Blog Says: November 13th, 2013 at 2:03 am

    [...]   Previous Related PostsNegotiating Closing Costs in Los Angeles Real EstateTrends and Oddities in the Los Angeles Real Estate MarketToday’s Home Buying Outlook in Los Angeles Real EstateDot those i’s – Proceeding Carefully with a Refinance for Los Angeles Real EstateMIP or PMI in Los Angeles Real Estate? [...]

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Tim Manni

Tim Manni is the Managing Editor of and the author of their daily blog, which concentrates on the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets.

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