In our wraparound weekly survey of mortgage rates—the Mortgage Rates Radar—released earlier this week, HSH.com vice president Keith Gumbinger noted the importance of the March employment report on both the economy and mortgage rates:

“If the job market continues to solidify, the slowness we’re seeing lately will probably be little more than a temporary deceleration,” notes Gumbinger. “However, if hiring has slowed in March relative to the last few months, we could be in for a tepid economic period as the spring unfolds.”

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The U.S. economy posted 33 straight months of private-sector job growth and the lowest unemployment rate in four years in November, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The nation added 146,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November and the national unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent, the lowest level since December 2008.

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You didn’t have to dig much deeper than the recent weekly jobless claims to know we were going to be in for a disappointing employment report for June. Weekly claims have wandered in the 380,000 to 390,000 range for five consecutive weeks now, painting the picture for meager growth in June at best.

“If forced to pick a number, we’d settle on perhaps 82,000 new hires for the month (June), and even that figure would be an improvement on the last two,” wrote Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, in last week’s Market Trends newsletter.

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This morning’s job numbers proved to be another disappointing month for employment in the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that only 115,000 new jobs were added last month. The unemployment rate eased to 8.1 percent in April from 8.2 percent in March. The decline in the unemployment rate was caused by more job seekers giving up their search for new work.

The good news is that March’s figure was revised upward, from 120,000 to 154,000. From December to February, the monthly job’s numbers have averaged 252,000 new jobs each month. Economists believe that the unseasonably warm winter stole some hiring from March and April. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an excerpt from HSH.com’s latest Market Trends newsletter, an examination of mortgage rates and the economic conditions that affect them. Be sure to sign up today.

In a perfect recovery, economic growth would come in bursts above levels needed to foment a self-sustaining recovery without extraordinary supports. That’s not been the case with this recovery, at least to date, but perhaps those days are approaching more quickly than previously expected.

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In what was a surprise to market observers, the economy added 243,000 jobs in January, the most in nine months. The unemployment rate had an impressive showing of its own, falling to 8.3 percent.

Estimates for the January report varied. While a group of economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted 121,000 new hires last month, HSH.com expected 180,000.

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It has been evident in several reports released over the last month or so — even in the tone of Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke’s voice as he addressed Congress yesterday — that while economic conditions haven’t truly begun to (technically) improve, they’re getting ‘less worse.’

Today we’ll take a quick look into the ADP’s Employment Report as a precursor to the government’s report due out Friday. While the ADP’s report only covers private-sector jobs (doesn’t include government jobs), it gives market analysts a chance to prep for Friday. Despite 491,000 American workers eliminated from payrolls in April, the decline has been the smallest in six months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch.com predict that 580,000 payrolls will be eliminated in Friday’s report, also making it the smallest decline in six months.

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