Below is an excerpt from of our latest Market Trends newsletter, Keith Gumbinger’s latest examination of the economic conditions that influenced mortgage rates. Sign up to receive the Market Trends in your inbox Friday evening.

A cascade of fresh economic data came out last week, variously reflecting economic conditions in both March and April. A “big picture” look at the data might lead one to an “economy is still troubled” conclusion despite the current 2.5 percent run rate for Gross Domestic Product.

Read the rest of this entry »

The post below first appeared on U.S. News & World Report’s Home Front blog on April 26. A special thanks to Meg Handley and the entire Home Front team:

So far, 2013 has been an up-and-down year for mortgage rates. After cresting in March, rates for average for 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgages have sunk by about a quarter percentage point, currently just above the low point for this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s no end in sight to the Fed’ ongoing efforts to keep mortgage rates low. At least not at the moment. However, the Federal Reserve faces a very real set of risks if they decide to kill their programs too soon or allow them to run too long.

A mistake either way will prove consequential for mortgage rates.

Read the rest of this entry »

A housing recovery is under way and Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth A. Duke thinks it will last, though perhaps without much more steam than it has already mustered. While investors have been responsible for much of the current demand, Duke believes it is essential that young first-time homebuyers return to the housing market moving forward.

As a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Duke is expected to analyze and speak about economic data as she did during a Mortgage Bankers Association conference recently in Avon, Colo.

Read the rest of this entry »

After spending the last couple of years framing interest-rate policy in terms of calendar dates, the Federal Reserve abandoned time-based monetary policy in favor of pursuing a more goals-based one. At the moment, and regardless of any declared finish line, mortgage and other interest rates are going nowhere fast.

Record-setting week

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, we published our annual set of predictions for real estate and mortgage markets for the upcoming new year. Number nine on our list of “10 thoughts for 2013” was “Fed policy: Operation Twist ends, something new starts.”

That prediction came early. At the conclusion of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2012, the Fed did in fact announce that Operation Twist will sunset at the end of the month as originally planned, and the policy-setting group also announced a new effort to keep mortgage rates low and improve the economy as a whole.

Read the rest of this entry »

A combination of mixed economic news and an ever-impending fiscal cliff pushed mortgage rates down just a little last week. Hurricane Sandy’s distortion of some of the latest economic data make it hard to clearly discern the underlying trend, but there’s nothing we can see which suggests that any imminent spurt of growth is forming anywhere.

Mortgage rates down all around

Read the rest of this entry »

The economy “expanded at a measured pace” though mid-November, according to the Federal Reserve. Without a strong trend to push them one way or the other, mortgage rates are mostly wobbling in a small range with little traction to move in either direction. Certainly, hopes (or lack thereof) of a resolution to the impending “fiscal cliff” would have an effect on mortgage rates, but with none in sight at the moment, it’s back and forth we go.

Mortgage rates fall to record lows

Read the rest of this entry »

A continuing stream of largely better economic data has helped mortgage rates to firm a little in recent weeks, but they wandered a bit backward last week.

There’s really no place for them to go at the moment, not with the Federal Reserve’s QE3 program fully underway. That said, it is interesting that the Fed’s program to keep mortgage rates low must in some ways fight against the ultimate goal of the program, which is to foster stronger economic growth; stronger growth tends to push interest rates higher. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we reported the first mortgage rate increase in two months. The conforming 30-year fixed-rate increased by 0.04 percent. The good news is that this week the conforming 30-year fixed-rate is unchanged.

According to our Mortgage Rates Radar, the latest mortgage rates report from HSH.com, while the average rate for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was unchanged for the week, holding at 3.52 percent, conforming 5/1 Hybrid ARM rates increased by two basis points, closing the Wednesday-to-Tuesday wraparound weekly survey at an average of 2.70 percent.

Read the rest of this entry »