Well, if you’re reading this you didn’t get raptured; in fact, no one did. Contemplating the end of the world is probably something we’ve all done at least once or twice, but I don’t think any of us have had the gusto to put an exact date on the world’s last day.

But as Bruce Watson of AOL’s Daily Finance, writes, “Ultimately, though, the way that [Harold Camping] calculated humanity’s expiration date is less important than the interest that his prediction generated.”

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Could it be that lower home prices are actually good news?

Writing in the Washington Post recently, Robert Samuelson argues that “housing’s troubles may have a silver lining. If you’re a homeowner, the steep fall in prices is calamitous. But if you’re a future buyer, it’s a godsend. What we’re seeing is a massive wealth transfer from today’s older homeowners to tomorrow’s younger homeowners. From year-end 2006 to 2010, housing values fell $6.3 trillion, reports the Federal Reserve. Assuming there’s no sharp rebound in prices–a good bet–that’s $6.3 trillion the young won’t pay.”

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Real estate has always been distinguished by happy people, folks who can find joy in every market situation.

Consider the case of David Lereah, former chief economist with the National Association of Realtors and author of the 2006 book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust – And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market.”

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It’s not good; in fact, it’s getting worse.

You know what they say, “No news is good news.” Unfortunately these days, no news tends to mean it’s just old news.

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The instant reaction to the death of Osama bin Laden was as it should be: oil prices dropped, stock futures rose and decent people celebrated. But these were temporary blips on the economic scene, events which will quickly fade in terms of financial impact.

Does bin Laden’s death affect mortgage rates?

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The Treasury Department is now estimating that improper deductions worth more than $500 million have been taken under the government’s tax credit program for first-time homebuyers. This will elate critics of the program and seriously miss an opportunity to help the ailing housing market. That said, I think the program served an important purpose, despite this fraud.

According to a report from J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (the TIGTA in Treasury-speak), we have a lot of creative taxpayers out there who took improper deductions. This is hardly surprising under any circumstances, but in the particular case of the first-time homebuyer tax credit program, it’s a wonder that the results are not far worse because the program was ridiculously complex.

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Saturday

“Is your home properly protected?” Read the rest of this entry »

If you follow what I write about on this blog even somewhat closely, you’ll know that I often refer to home prices as “the statistic that matters most.” I’ve written several times that home prices are an important economic indicator — a tell-tale sign of how the overall economy is progressing. I’ve said, until home prices get back on track, this country’s economy will continue to suffer.

Dan Green, a loan officer in Cincinnati and regular contributor to HSH.com, offered a different spin on the importance I’ve placed on home prices. It’s not that Green necessarily disagrees with me, but according to him, there’s something homebuyers should worry about more when they’re shopping for homes and determining their levels of affordability: mortgage rates.

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Mortgage rates change every day, but as a borrower you have to keep an eye on events down the road. The penalty for not looking ahead could be far-higher costs or even foreclosure and/or bankruptcy.

The obvious problem with looking ahead is that nobody actually has the ability to see into the future. Nevertheless, such a handicap does not prevent economists from telling us what will happen next. All of which brings us to a survey by MacroMarkets LLC and its March 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey

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Almost two years ago I wrote a post titled “Home prices: The statistic that matters most?” It was June 2009 and we were at a point where home prices had fallen every month since July 2006. Everyone seemed well aware of just how instrumental home-price recovery would be in leading us out of the recession and back towards recovery and regrowth. “The [economic] crisis cannot end fully until home prices in the U.S. are at least stabilizing,” said Alan Greenspan.

Well, it’s two years later and not only has the economy not fully recovered, but home prices at the start of 2011 are trending dangerously close to their 2009 trough. So even if you don’t agree that home prices may be the statistic that matters most, it’s certainly an indicator of this country’s overall economic health.

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